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Football Betting Odds, Tips and Previews

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Ultimate pro football betting guide

However, this team peaked early, and eventually the preseason loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson reared its ugly head along with subpar offensive line play. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around. I don’t believe the Jets can catch the Patriots, but for this bet they just need to finish over .500 again.

Minnesota Vikings (20-1)

Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

Opening week last year, the Ravens lost defensive force and team leader? Terrell Suggs — and quite simply, it was all downhill from there. They jumped to 6-0 record before their bye week, outscoring the opposition 164-101. However, it’s easy to flush last season down the drain and move forward with this rock-solid organization.

New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)

Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)

Dave Tuley

Denver Broncos (25-1)

After Super Bowl 50, the Houston Texans were my choice for best value play out of the AFC at 40-1. However, after ranking 12th in points per game and sixth in yards per play, expect the league to adjust and regression to occur. The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they’re only clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick ‘em games will tell the tale). We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. Before last season, Harbaugh owned a 72-38 regular-season NFL record as head coach, plus 10-5 in the postseason. After Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford, this number has been raised to 8.5, and I believe that’s an over-adjustment — so I now like the under 8.5 (and ESPN’s Football Power Index and our Money Line Estimate agree as they’re still right around 8 wins). The market hasn’t agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day weekend. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. Nelson is back this season, while the signing of Jared Cook gives Rodgers another weapon.

The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me.

AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets

Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)

Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)

Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. Note that with the top AFC teams expected down compared to the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks, the key is to bet the Ravens to win their conference.

Tuley

If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over 7 at -130. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the services of difference-maker Marcell Dareus for the first four games. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.

Offensively, the Cardinals continue to be sound at all levels. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. ESPN’s Football Power Index has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are only projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the Money Line Estimate only adds up to 6.4 wins. They did lose defensive tackle Kyle Williams early in the season, but a defensive mastermind like Ryan should be capable of working around a key injury.

Atlanta Falcons over 7 (-130)

The season is finally upon us. with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015. The Bears and Lions continue to erode, while the Vikings obviously lose some luster with the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Basically, it comes down to believing we’re much more likely to see 6 wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to 8.

Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet. ESPN Chalk’s NFL Vegas experts, Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning, combine to bring you the ultimate betting guide for 2016.

After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl LI at 40-1. I still like them, but the “value” part isn’t quite there anymore at 14-1.

It’s not often you get 25-1 on the defending champions. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. Obviously we can’t have the Chiefs going on another 10-game winning streak, but that was a bit of a fluke, and no one’s going to be looking past them this year.

Rynning

Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. In addition, their top draft choice, Shaq Lawson, might be back from injury in November and second-rounder Reggie Ragland is already done for the season. Look for the Ravens to return to their physical ways with a chance to match any AFC contender. Secondly, and ultimately the biggest hurdle, is they have to win three playoff games in a row (four if they don’t get a first-round bye), and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs and 0-4 with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. Yes, the schedule lightens up after that, but Ryan might have one foot out the door.

Tuley: Teams I love (to bet on) Tuley: Teams I love (to fade) Tuley’s totals: Best over/under teams

New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)

New York Jets over 8 ( 150)

Yes, there’s a trend here with finding value on teams with QB issues. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. The better play now is Cincinnati at 20-1, as the Bengals have one of the best all-around teams with a balanced offense and a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.

Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.

Cincinnati Bengals (20-1)

Dallas Cowboys (25-1)

Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)

If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. They added defensive leader Eric Weddle to their defensive backfield, and were able to add the No. Importantly, the Cardinals can move forward from last year. The W/L/T that we used in our betting previews for each team and used CG Technology’s Week 1-16 lines to see how many times a team is expected to be favored has the Giants favored in only 8 games, so they would almost have to win all of those (plus any upsets) to get over 8.5.

Over

New York Giants Chicago Bears New Orleans Saints Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars

Under

Buffalo Bills under 8 (-150)

The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. Forever the extreme eternal optimist, Ryan’s Bills generally failed to deliver last season, especially on the defensive side of the football. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu was devastating for this group late last season, as he works himself to 100 percent by this season’s end.

You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.

Vital when handicapping over/under season wins is the schedule, and the Packers’ slate is relatively smooth sailing. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. And while defenses can still win championships, like we saw last year with Denver, it’s not a necessity in today’s NFL.

. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.

Atlanta Falcons (80-1)

Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers loomed especially large the first six weeks of last season. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.

After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Of course, there are two big obstacles for the Bengals: First, they really need to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and secure a first-round bye. They’ve fortified their defensive line with the additions of Chandler Jones and top draft choice Robert Nkemdiche to aid in the all-important NFL pressuring of the quarterback. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. The first 10 games will test the mettle of Ryan & Co. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.

The Bills did thrive on the offensive side last season, as offensive coordinator Greg Roman did an incredible job with quarterback Tyrod Taylor & Co. The schedule is tough and front-weighted. But the talent is there to take a flier.

Other potential future-book plays

I originally had a lean on the Chiefs under 9 back in the spring, so I really like it now that it has been bet up to 9.5 (and 120 to boot!). Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.

Erin Rynning

I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. In addition, they were minus-15 in turnovers and nine of their 11 losses were within eight points as seemingly nothing went right. So, I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current 150 price. They eventually placed 20 players on injured reserve, including eight projected starters — Suggs, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith included. In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. However, we’ve clearly seen the high end of this Packers team over the previous two seasons as an offensive machine and a capable defense

New gambling record: Betting on outcome of Brexit vote

Spread betting, on the other hand, does not provide a simple win or lose outcome, but can provide payoffs based on the accuracy of the bet. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. “But my big win is to leave the E.U.”

Betfair allows people to place wagers against each other rather than setting odds like the traditional bookmakers. “This is a historical event, and I want to take part in it,” said Can Zhao, an investment researcher who last week placed a 135-pound ($198) bet on “remain” at a Ladbrokes betting parlor near London’s Kings Cross train station.

The betting has also gained the attention of global investors as a gauge of the likelihood of an event’s outcome. referendum betting already hit a record for a political event days ago for Betfair, bookmaker BetFred and IG, the largest provider of spread betting services.

The bookies’ odds have largely been in synch with global financial markets. presidential race, which was its previous record for a political event. The referendum also outmatches the 35 million pounds placed on the 2014 World Cup Final.

Thursday’s vote on whether to leave the European Union, which will have lasting consequences for the country and Europe, is due to break the record as the most bet-upon political event in Britain’s history.

Betting is his way to get in on the drama because as a foreign citizen from China he will not have a right to vote. That’s reflected in financial markets, where stocks and the British pound are relatively buoyant one day before the big event.

Betting on political events used to be a niche area in the gambling industry but has become more widespread, particularly in Britain. Polls suggest it is too close to call, while bookies give the “remain” side a higher chance of winning.

Betfair, bookmakers Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School all estimate that the total value of bets on the vote placed in Britain will reach, and likely exceed, 100 million pounds.

E.U. That surpasses the 40 million pounds placed on the 2012 U.S. It has become increasingly popular, particularly to bet on financial markets.

LONDON — As if the stakes were not high enough in Britain’s nail-biting vote this week, people are betting record amounts of money on its outcome.

Betting exchange Betfair says it had taken 45.8 million pounds in wagers on the E.U. All Rights Reserved. vote as of Wednesday and expects a final amount of 50 million pounds. That’s particularly true since pollsters have missed badly in measuring sentiment before some of Britain’s most recent votes, the last general election and the Scottish referendum.

For Stephen Jones, 55, betting is a form of insurance against disappointment. Ladbrokes has seen a tenfold increase in recent years.

“If we are going to remain in the E.U., at least I will take compensation,” said Jones, who expects to get 3,000 pounds back in profit in such an event. He intends to vote to leave the E.U., but has placed bets on “remain” to at least get something in case of his side’s defeat.

© 2016 The Associated Press. The industry is expecting 100 million pounds, or nearly $150 million, to be wagered by the time the result is known in the early hours of Friday.. But the importance, drama and uncertainty that have surrounded this vote have made it a spectator sport in its own right. While the polls show this week’s vote is too close to call, bookies like Betfair are giving the “remain” side a 76 percent probability of winning. He was back in the betting shop this week to place additional wagers on behalf of three American friends.

“This is comfortably the biggest political betting event in history and dwarves both the general election and the Scottish referendum,” says Lewis Davey, spokesman for Paddy Power, referring to the Scottish vote on independence last year.

Such betting fever is normally associated with major sports events, with people here habitually placing wagers online or in betting shops on everything from horse races to football matches

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